Executive Summary
Most nations view AI and machine learning as promising and useful technological tools. For China, these technologies are fundamental drivers of national rejuvenation, economic prosperity, military power, and global influence. Through efforts like elevating data as a national strategic resource, establishing the National Data Bureau (NDB) to oversee data governance and marketization, and enacting major institutional reforms around AI, the CCP has created a national ecosystem geared toward AI/ML-enabled dominance.
But how seriously should policymakers and analysts take these sweeping plans? Which strategic aspects of China’s many AI announcements are most noteworthy and potentially impactful? What are the hurdles and challenges that could deter China from establishing this ecosystem of AI dominance, and how likely are they to be overcome?
In this paper, NSDPI researchers explore these questions by analyzing the strategy and implementation behind China’s national pursuit of AI supremacy. By examining the actions and policies of the NDB around data, the allocation of strategic talent forces, and the systemic headwinds China faces, we found China’s commitment and mobilization toward AI dominance to be a high-stakes gamble grounded in both strength and vulnerability.
Key Takeaways
- Key drivers of China’s AI/ML comprehensive strategy include viewing AI as a potential force multiplier against U.S. military and economic dominance as well as seeing AI and automation technologies as potential fixes for the country’s rapidly aging population and shrinking workforce.
- Synergy between economic growth, military strength, and social governance is a defining feature of China’s AI strategy, and institutions like the NDB are pursuing data sovereignty policies to ensure foreign entities cannot access or control Chinese data—the strategic resource needed for AI/ML innovation.
- The trajectory of China’s AI and data policies is intertwined with CCP leadership’s perception of the nation’s relative strength and vulnerability in key domains like microelectronics supply chains and national digital infrastructure.
- Tension persists between China’s top-down strategic directives and the complexities of implementation across socio-technical systems. China’s AI vision still faces systemic frictions like data silos hindering collaboration, local protectionism, and intense global competition for top AI talent.